Will Barack Obama be arrested before Jan 2027?

This market is pricing an extremely low probability (6%) for a high-profile arrest outcome, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1,870.7% implied yield, reflecting the massive asymmetry between the tiny premium and potential payout. With zero 24-hour volume despite $61k open interest and 259 days to expiration, liquidity is essentially frozen, suggesting this contract may be held primarily as a speculative long-shot bet rather than actively traded. The 13 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime indicate moderate tail-risk concentration, though the stable 7-day price action at 7¢ suggests the market has settled into equilibrium around this extreme tail scenario.

Resolution rules

If Barack Obama is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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