Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 13% probability of arrest over the next 259 days, but the extreme 942% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity and outsized payoff potential rather than genuine conviction in the outcome.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 13% probability of arrest over the next 259 days, but the extreme 942% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity and outsized payoff potential rather than genuine conviction in the outcome. Volume is notably thin at just $100 in 24 hours against $37,807 open interest, and the recent 44% price surge from 9¢ to 13¢ over seven days warrants scrutiny—this could reflect either new information or low-liquidity volatility. The neutral regime score and modest 7 cliff risk index suggest no imminent catalyst, making this primarily a speculative tail-risk bet rather than a probability-weighted market.
Resolution rules
If Hillary Clinton is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXARREST-27JAN-HCLIN yes 100