Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $2,092 open interest position, suggesting the 37¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $2,092 open interest position, suggesting the 37¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The 239.8% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated relative to the 82.7% No yield, indicating asymmetric risk pricing that could reflect either genuine tail-risk concerns about the former Spanish PM or simply thin-market distortions. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the modest 4¢ spread and minimal price movement (38¢ to 37¢ over 7 days) suggest this contract has largely stalled, making it difficult to assess whether current odds represent informed positioning or stale pricing.
Resolution rules
If José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXARREST-27JAN-JZAP yes 100