Semifinals · Will Belgium
Semifinals is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside Will Belgium.
Price history
7¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If Belgium is eliminated in the Semifinals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Semifinals
Rank
#4 of 7
Leader
Round of 32 29¢
Range
2¢-29¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26BEL-SF
May 24, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$200
Family rank
#4 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Belgium
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Belgium is eliminated in the Semifinals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
Identifier
KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26BEL-SF
Event family
Will Belgium.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Round of 32 29¢
Current share
—
Round of 32
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26BEL-R32
Round of 16
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26BEL-R16
Quarterfinals
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26BEL-QF
Semifinals
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26BEL-SF
Group Stage
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26BEL-GS
Runner-Up
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26BEL-FL
Outright Winner
kalshi · KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26BEL-FW
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.