SimpleFunctions

Benson Boone · KX20SONG-26DEC26

Benson Boone is priced at 27¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 14¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside KX20SONG-26DEC26.

Price history

27¢ current

+11¢
10¢20¢30¢
May 27, 2026Jun 26, 2026

Contract brief

If Benson Boone has a top 20 single on the Billboard Hot 100 by the Billboard issue for Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Benson Boone

Rank

#5 of 16

Leader

Beyoncé 48¢

Range

1¢-48¢

Family volume

$278

Identifier

KX20SONG-26DEC26-BEN

Jun 26, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 4m ago

Implied probability

27¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 26, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 4m ago

Bid

13¢

Ask

27¢

Spread

14¢

Reported volume

$631

Family rank

#5 of 16

16 outcomes · KX20SONG-26DEC26

Closes

Dec 29, 2026

Family volume

$278

Orderbook snapshot

13 / 27¢

Kalshi
14¢ spread
BidSize
13¢3
12¢10
10¢200
4¢1.0K
2¢1.1K
AskSize
27¢201
92¢1.2K
93¢56
96¢1.0K
97¢1

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Benson Boone has a top 20 single on the Billboard Hot 100 by the Billboard issue for Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 29, 2026

Identifier

KX20SONG-26DEC26-BEN

SF Signal
SF Index
0.00
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1311.9%

IY (No)

29.3%

Adj IY

0%

CRI

7

Overround

10.6%

LAS

1.08

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1311.9%
29.3%
Adj IY
0%
7
Overround
10.6%
LAS
1.08

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.