Will Lil Baby have a top 20 song this year?
This contract is priced at 26¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 24¢ bid, 37¢ ask, 13¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$234
Best sibling
Joji 6¢
Ticker
KX20SONG-26DEC26-BAB
Market snapshot
Lil Baby in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Lil Baby have a top 20 song this year?. The displayed quote is 26¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $94. In the KX20SONG-26DEC26 family, this outcome ranks #10 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC.
Outcome
Lil Baby
Family rank
#10 of 16
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
26¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 29, 2026
Reported volume
$94
Family context
16 outcomes · KX20SONG-26DEC26
Quote range
5¢-99¢
Family leader
Drake 99¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 3m ago
Venue identifier: KX20SONG-26DEC26-BAB. Family volume: $234.
Price history
26¢ current
Orderbook snapshot
24 / 37¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If Lil Baby has a top 20 single on the Billboard Hot 100 by the Billboard issue for Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 29, 2026
Identifier
KX20SONG-26DEC26-BAB
Event family
KX20SONG-26DEC26.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$234
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Drake 99¢
Current share
0%
Lil Baby
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-BAB
Joji
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-JOJ
Charli xcx
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-XCX
Future
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-FUT
Kanye West / Ye
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-KAN
Drake
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-DRA
The Weeknd
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-WEE
Ariana Grande
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-ARI
Ed Sheeran
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-ED
Travis Scott
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-TRA
Eminem
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-EMI
Rihanna
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-RIH
Billie Eilish
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-BIL
Kendrick Lamar
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-KEN
Post Malone
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-POS
J Balvin
kalshi · KX20SONG-26DEC26-JBA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 26% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.