Bernard Cazeneuve · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30
Bernard Cazeneuve is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30.
Price history
19¢ current
−30¢Contract brief
If Bernard Cazeneuve is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Bernard Cazeneuve
Rank
#13 of 16
Leader
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 95¢
Range
5¢-95¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-BCAZ
Jul 11, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$15
Family rank
#13 of 16
16 outcomes · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30
Closes
Jun 30, 2027
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Bernard Cazeneuve is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 30, 2027
Identifier
KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-BCAZ
Event family
KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 95¢
Current share
0%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-JMEL
Édouard Philippe
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-EPHI
Nathalie Arthaud
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-NART
Bruno Retailleau
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-BRET
Fabien Roussel
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-FROU
Éric Zemmour
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-EZEM
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-NDUP
Raphaël Glucksmann
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-RGLU
Dominique de Villepin
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-DVIL
Gabriel Attal
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-GATT
François Ruffin
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-FRUF
Marine Tondelier
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-MTON
Bernard Cazeneuve
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-BCAZ
Jordan Bardella
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-JBAR
Jérôme Guedj
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-JGUE
Karim Bouamrane
kalshi · KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-KBOU
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.