Will Bruno Retailleau appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+3pp
31h ago
24h volume
$701
20 contracts
Top contract
79¢
$364 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will François” vs “Will Marine”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will François
Will François Ruffin appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: François Ruffin
KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-FRUF
Will François Asselineau appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: François Asselineau
KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-FASS
Will François Hollande appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: François Hollande
KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-FHOL
Cluster 2
Will Marine
Will Marine Le Pen appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: Marine Le Pen
KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-MLEP
Will Marine Tondelier appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: Marine Tondelier
KXFRPRESBALLOT-27JUN30-MTON
Cluster 3
Will Bruno Retailleau appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 4
Will Édouard Philippe appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 5
Will Jordan Bardella appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 6
Will Bernard Cazeneuve appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 7
Will Clémentine Autain appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 8
Will Dominique de Villepin appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 9
Will Éric Zemmour appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 10
Will Fabien Roussel appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 11
Will Gabriel Attal appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 12
Will Gérald Darmanin appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 13
Will Jérôme Guedj appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 14
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 15
Will Karim Bouamrane appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 16
Will Nathalie Arthaud appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Cluster 17
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election
Analysis
This market estimates a 40% chance that Bruno Retailleau will officially register as a candidate for France's 2027 presidential election first round. Retailleau, a senior conservative politician and former Interior Minister, faces competing pressures: his prominent position within the Republican party could support a candidacy, but the party typically consolidates behind a single centrist or center-right contender rather than fielding multiple candidates. The probability sits below similar figures for Édouard Philippe (90%) and Éric Zemmour (72%), suggesting traders see meaningful barriers to his entry. The critical period will be late 2026 through early 2027, when formal candidacy declarations occur and party strategies crystallize. The final registration deadline and any evolving factional alignments within conservative politics will determine whether Retailleau pursues an independent run or steps back to support a unified slate.
- ›Retailleau's current political role and whether he maintains sufficient institutional backing to mount a credible campaign
- ›Historical patterns of center-right party fragmentation or consolidation in French presidential contests
- ›Statements or signals from Republican party leadership indicating their preferred candidate strategy and number of official nominees
- ›Formal candidacy registration deadline and any announced intentions by Retailleau himself between now and early 2027
- ›Relative polling strength of other conservative contenders like Édouard Philippe, which could influence whether Retailleau enters or defers
What moved the line
- Jul 11Bruno Retailleau↑42pp43→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Nicolas Dupont-Aignan↑17pp46→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Gérald Darmanin↓9pp13→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Jordan Bardella↓8pp12→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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