SimpleFunctions

Carson Hocevar · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26

Carson Hocevar is priced at 70¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 68¢ bid, 75¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26.

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Price history

70¢ current

−3¢
70¢
Jul 6, 2026Jul 11, 2026

Contract brief

If Carson Hocevar finishes in the top 20 in the Main Event at the 2026 NASCAR Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Carson Hocevar

Rank

#3 of 16

Leader

Ryan Blaney 76¢

Range

9¢-76¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-CAHO

Jul 11, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 6m ago

Implied probability

70¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 11, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 6m ago

Bid

68¢

Ask

75¢

Spread

7¢

24h volume

$100

Family rank

#3 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26

Closes

Aug 10, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

68 / 75¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
68¢132
67¢200
53¢80
50¢100
6¢54
AskSize
75¢100
77¢200
87¢82
88¢70
90¢80

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Carson Hocevar finishes in the top 20 in the Main Event at the 2026 NASCAR Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 10, 2026

Identifier

KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-CAHO

SF Signal
SF Index
1314.89
Regime
taker

Event family

KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$2K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Ryan Blaney 76¢

Current share

6%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Ryan Blaney

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-RYBL

76¢
$0$00.1

Joey Logano

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-JOLO

71¢
$6$60.1

Carson Hocevar

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-CAHO

68¢
$100$100—

William Byron

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-WIBY

64¢
$5$50.1

Kyle Larson

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-KYLA

59¢
$10$100.1

Austin Cindric

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-AUCI

57¢
$0$00.1

Michael McDowell

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-MIMC

48¢
$203$203—

Ryan Preece

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-RYPR

46¢
$482$482—

Ricky Stenhouse

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-RIST

45¢
$215$215—

Ty Gibbs

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-TYGI

45¢
$0$00.2

Erik Jones

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-ERJO

44¢
$103$103—

Todd Gilliland

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-TOGI

39¢
$100$100—

Riley Herbst

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-RIHE

38¢
$115$115—

Ty Dillon

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-TYDI

35¢
$59$590.2

Cole Custer

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-COCU

33¢
$32$32—

Chad Finchum

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-CHFI

9¢
$300$300—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

582.4%

IY (No)

2629.8%

Adj IY

1315%

CRI

2

Overround

17.8%

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)
582.4%
IY (No)
2629.8%
Adj IY
1315%
CRI
2
Overround
17.8%

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SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.

Event Probability API

Read 70% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.

World State API

Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.

Hedging Workflows

Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.