SimpleFunctions

Kyle Larson · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26

Kyle Larson is priced at 65¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 59¢ bid, 65¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 16 inside KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26.

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Price history

65¢ current

−26¢
75¢
Jul 6, 2026Jul 10, 2026

Contract brief

If Kyle Larson finishes in the top 20 in the Main Event at the 2026 NASCAR Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Kyle Larson

Rank

#6 of 16

Leader

Tyler Reddick 77¢

Range

33¢-77¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-KYLA

Jul 11, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 7m ago

Implied probability

65¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 11, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 7m ago

Bid

59¢

Ask

65¢

Spread

6¢

24h volume

$271

Family rank

#6 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26

Closes

Aug 10, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

59 / 65¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
59¢100
57¢200
44¢80
AskSize
65¢202
66¢100
67¢200
80¢96
87¢63

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Kyle Larson finishes in the top 20 in the Main Event at the 2026 NASCAR Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 10, 2026

Identifier

KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-KYLA

SF Signal
SF Index
883.56
Regime
taker

Event family

KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$2K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Tyler Reddick 77¢

Current share

12%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Tyler Reddick

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-TYRE

77¢
$4$4—

Joey Logano

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-JOLO

71¢
$310$310—

William Byron

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-WIBY

64¢
$305$305—

Christopher Bell

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-CHBE

63¢
$300$300—

Denny Hamlin

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-DEHA

62¢
$295$295—

Kyle Larson

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-KYLA

59¢
$271$271—

Michael McDowell

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-MIMC

50¢
$100$100—

Erik Jones

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-ERJO

46¢
$47$47—

Ricky Stenhouse

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-RIST

45¢
$244$244—

Ryan Preece

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-RYPR

45¢
$29$29—

Austin Dillon

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-AUDI

40¢
$26$26—

Todd Gilliland

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-TOGI

39¢
$128$128—

John H. Nemechek

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-JONE

39¢
$27$27—

Riley Herbst

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-RIHE

38¢
$113$113—

Ty Dillon

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-TYDI

35¢
$59$59—

Cole Custer

kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-COCU

33¢
$32$320.2

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

853.4%

IY (No)

1767.1%

Adj IY

884%

CRI

1

Overround

17.9%

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)
853.4%
IY (No)
1767.1%
Adj IY
884%
CRI
1
Overround
17.9%

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SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.

Event Probability API

Read 65% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.

World State API

Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.

Hedging Workflows

Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.