Todd Gilliland · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26
Todd Gilliland is priced at 53¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 62¢ ask, 60¢ spread. This outcome ranks #14 of 16 inside KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26.
Price history
53¢ current
+30¢Contract brief
If Todd Gilliland finishes in the top 20 in the Main Event at the 2026 NASCAR Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Todd Gilliland
Rank
#14 of 16
Leader
Chase Elliott 68¢
Range
45¢-68¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-TOGI
Jul 12, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
62¢
Spread
60¢
24h volume
$449
Family rank
#14 of 16
16 outcomes · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26
Closes
Aug 10, 2026
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 62¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Todd Gilliland finishes in the top 20 in the Main Event at the 2026 NASCAR Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 10, 2026
Identifier
KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-TOGI
Event family
KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Chase Elliott 68¢
Current share
4%
Chase Elliott
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-CHEL
Ryan Blaney
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-RYBL
Tyler Reddick
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-TYRE
Ross Chastain
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-ROCH
Carson Hocevar
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-CAHO
Christopher Bell
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-CHBE
Bubba Wallace
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-BUWA
Erik Jones
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-ERJO
Zane Smith
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-ZASM
Ricky Stenhouse
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-RIST
Austin Hill
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-AUHI
AJ Allmendinger
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-AJAL
Connor Zilisch
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-COZI
Todd Gilliland
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-TOGI
Austin Dillon
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-AUDI
Noah Gragson
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP20-QUAS4AA26-NOGR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
sports
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 53% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.