Will Charles Leclerc win the F1 Drivers Championship?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Charles Leclerc win the F1 Drivers Championship?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing December 22, 2026. The market prices Leclerc at just 8¢ despite 250 days until expiry, implying an extremely asymmetric risk profile with a 2,290% implied yield for Yes positions versus only 9.3% for No—a 246x disparity that suggests either deep skepticism about his championship odds or significant mispricing.
Analysis
The market prices Leclerc at just 8¢ despite 250 days until expiry, implying an extremely asymmetric risk profile with a 2,290% implied yield for Yes positions versus only 9.3% for No—a 246x disparity that suggests either deep skepticism about his championship odds or significant mispricing. With $289,813 in open interest but only $1,772 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is notably thin relative to the position size, creating potential execution challenges for larger trades. The flat 7-day price action (stable at 6¢) combined with a moderate 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates the market has settled into a consensus view, though the extreme Yes yield warrants caution about tail-risk underpricing.
Resolution rules
If Charles Leclerc wins the F1 Drivers Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXF1-26-CL yes 100