Will Oscar Piastri win the F1 Drivers Championship?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Oscar Piastri win the F1 Drivers Championship?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing December 22, 2026. Oscar Piastri's championship odds have deteriorated sharply, dropping from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days, suggesting recent negative sentiment around his 2026 prospects despite 250 days remaining until expiry.
Analysis
Oscar Piastri's championship odds have deteriorated sharply, dropping from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days, suggesting recent negative sentiment around his 2026 prospects despite 250 days remaining until expiry. The extreme 3509.6% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the deeply discounted 5¢ price, but this is offset by concerning liquidity metrics—only $595.37 in 24-hour volume against $269,958 open interest indicates potential difficulty exiting positions at quoted prices. The 24-point Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as it signals meaningful tail risk that could create sharp repricing near resolution.
Resolution rules
If Oscar Piastri wins the F1 Drivers Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXF1-26-OP yes 100