Will China announce additional U.S. agricultural purchases in Sep 2026
Will China announce additional U.S. agricultural purchases in Sep 2026 is priced at 68¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 63¢ bid, 73¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
68¢ current
Contract brief
If a listed news source reports before Oct 1, 2026 that China announced additional purchases of U.S. agricultural products during September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will China announce additional U.S. agricultural purchases in Sep 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXCHINAAGPURCHASE-26-26OCT01
Sep 20, 2026, 6:12 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
63¢
Ask
73¢
Spread
10¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
63 / 73¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a listed news source reports before Oct 1, 2026 that China announced additional purchases of U.S. agricultural products during September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
KXCHINAAGPURCHASE-26-26OCT01
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will China announce additional U.S. agricultural purchases in Sep 2026 68¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
Read 68% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.