By 2030 · CHINAUSGDP
By 2030 is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
20¢ current
Contract brief
If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
By 2030
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$4
Identifier
CHINAUSGDP-30
Jun 8, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$4
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Family volume
$4
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Identifier
CHINAUSGDP-30
Event family
CHINAUSGDP.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4
Outcomes
1
Highest price
By 2030 20¢
Current share
100%
By 2030
kalshi · CHINAUSGDP-30
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.442
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.