Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 7¢ price generating an 887% annualized return for Yes holders against just 1.5% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of Van Hollen's candidacy relative to the 987-day timeframe. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $12,644 open interest and a 3¢ spread indicates illiquidity that could make entry/exit difficult, though the modest cliff risk index of 24 suggests the outcome isn't binary-dependent on near-term events. At 7% implied probability for a sitting senator in a future leadership race, this appears mispriced unless market participants view Van Hollen as a particularly unlikely candidate.

Resolution rules

If Chris Van Hollen wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes.

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