Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$187
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2028
920 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election
Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?: Chris Van Hollen
KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01-CHOL
Cluster 2
Will Brian Schatz win the next Senate Democratic Leader election
Will Brian Schatz win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?: Brian Schatz
KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01-BSCH
Cluster 3
Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election
Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?: Chris Murphy
KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01-CMUR
Cluster 4
Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election
Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?: Chuck Schumer
KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01-CSHU
Cluster 5
Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election
Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?: Patty Murray
KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01-PMUR
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Senator Patty Murray becomes the next Democratic Senate Minority or Majority Leader. At 16%, the market suggests she faces significant competition for the position. The current probability reflects Murray's tenure and seniority as factors working in her favor, while her age and potential competition from other senior Democrats weigh against her. Leadership contests typically emerge when the current leader steps down or loses an election; the timing and circumstances of such a transition would substantially shift expectations. The outcome will ultimately depend on decisions by Democratic senators during an internal election, which occurs only when the position becomes vacant. Key considerations include whether incumbent leadership seeks reelection, the emergence of alternative candidates from different geographic or ideological factions, and voting patterns within the caucus that may prioritize new leadership.
- ›Current Senate Democratic leadership structure and whether incumbent leader has announced retirement or reelection intentions
- ›Murray's seniority ranking and voting record relative to other potential candidates within the Democratic caucus
- ›Geographic and demographic representation preferences among Senate Democrats, particularly whether they seek regional diversity in leadership
- ›Public statements or positioning by other senior Democratic senators indicating leadership ambitions
- ›Timing of any leadership transition and whether it occurs in the near or distant future
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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