Chuck Gray · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26
Chuck Gray is priced at 40¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 9 inside KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26.
Price history
40¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If Chuck Gray wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WY-AL House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Chuck Gray
Rank
#2 of 9
Leader
Steve Friess 56¢
Range
1¢-56¢
Family volume
$48
Identifier
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-CGRA
Aug 8, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$6K
Family rank
#2 of 9
9 outcomes · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Family volume
$48
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Chuck Gray wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WY-AL House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Identifier
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-CGRA
Event family
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$48
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Steve Friess 56¢
Current share
0%
Steve Friess
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-SFRI
Chuck Gray
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-CGRA
Bo Biteman
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-BBIT
Kevin Christensen
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-KCHR
Reid Rasner
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-RRAS
Jillian Balow
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-JBAL
Frank Chapman
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-FCHA
David Giralt
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-DGIR
John Romero-Martinez
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-JROM
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.