Chuck Gray · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26
Chuck Gray is priced at 49¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 37¢ bid, 49¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26.
Price history
49¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
If Chuck Gray wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WY-AL House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Chuck Gray
Rank
#1 of 9
Leader
Chuck Gray 37¢
Range
1¢-37¢
Family volume
$313
Identifier
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-CGRA
Jun 5, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
37¢
Ask
49¢
Spread
12¢
24h volume
$313
Family rank
#1 of 9
9 outcomes · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Family volume
$313
Orderbook snapshot
37 / 49¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Chuck Gray wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WY-AL House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Identifier
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-CGRA
Event family
KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$313
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Chuck Gray 37¢
Current share
100%
Chuck Gray
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-CGRA
Frank Chapman
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-FCHA
Reid Rasner
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-RRAS
David Giralt
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-DGIR
Bo Biteman
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-BBIT
Jillian Balow
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-JBAL
John Romero-Martinez
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-JROM
Kevin Christensen
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-KCHR
Steve Friess
kalshi · KXWYPRIMARY-ALR26-SFRI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 49% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.