Before Jan 1, 2027 · Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before J
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before J.
Price history
9¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If Clarence Thomas retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2028 31¢
Range
4¢-31¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXTHOMASANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUL-27JAN01
Aug 8, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$14K
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before J
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Clarence Thomas retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTHOMASANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUL-27JAN01
Event family
Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before J.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2028 31¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.