Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 31% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2028
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Before Jul 1, 2027
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
515 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before J
Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXTHOMASANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUL-27JAN01
Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXTHOMASANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUL-28JAN01
Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXTHOMASANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUL-27JUL01
Analysis
This reflects a 40% probability that Justice Clarence Thomas will publicly announce his resignation before January 1, 2028. The market is pricing in uncertainty around Thomas's health and potential retirement timeline. At 83, Thomas is the Court's oldest member; health developments or major life changes would significantly shift expectations. Recent Supreme Court term conclusions and congressional leadership transitions could influence retirement timing decisions. The key catalyst will be any public statements from Thomas, his family, or Court insiders regarding his future plans, along with observable changes in his docket participation or health status over the coming months.
- ›Thomas is 83 years old with a history of health issues; medical events or public health disclosures could materially shift retirement probability
- ›Market pricing shows higher conviction for departure before Jan 1, 2028 (40%) versus before Jan 1, 2027 (11%), suggesting traders expect departure is more likely mid-2027 or later if it occurs
- ›Control of the presidency and Senate affects strategic retirement timing; the current political environment influences when justices choose to announce departures
- ›Thomas has not signaled imminent retirement publicly; absence of health crises or explicit statements keeps near-term probabilities relatively low
- ›Historical precedent shows justices typically announce departures months in advance; sudden announcements are uncommon
What moved the line
- Aug 2Before Jan 1, 2028↓11pp40→29¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Before Jul 1, 2027↓7pp25→18¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Before Jul 1, 2027↓6pp18→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Before Jan 1, 2027↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Before Jul 1, 2027↓3pp30→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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