Before Nov 3, 2026 · KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03
Before Nov 3, 2026 is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 34¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
35¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If Cory Mills leaves the House before the midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Nov 3, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03
Jun 24, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
34¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$16K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 4, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
34 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Cory Mills leaves the House before the midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 4, 2026
Identifier
KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03
Event family
KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Before Nov 3, 2026 34¢
Current share
—
Before Nov 3, 2026
kalshi · KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 35% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.