Will Cory Mills leave the House before the midterms?
Prediction markets currently give a 67% probability that Will Cory Mills leave the House before the midterms?. This contract trades at 67¢ on Kalshi, closing November 4, 2026. The market is pricing a 62% probability that Rep.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 62% probability that Rep. Cory Mills exits the House before November 2026, with a notably asymmetric risk profile where the "No" side offers a 308% annualized yield compared to just 106% for "Yes"—suggesting the market may be underpricing the likelihood of his departure. The contract has experienced extreme volatility (277% realized vol) and surged 48 cents over seven days, yet remains illiquid with only $10 in 24-hour volume and $2,305 open interest, making the price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. With 202 days to expiry and a low info arrival rate of 0.3 events per hour, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where recent price movement may reflect limited trading activity rather than genuine probability shifts.
Resolution rules
If Cory Mills leaves the House before the midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03 yes 100