Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before May 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 4, 2026
132 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Cory Mills leave the House before the midterms
Will Cory Mills leave the House before the midterms?: Before Nov 3, 2026
KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03
Analysis
This market assesses the probability that U.S. Representative Cory Mills will leave Congress before May 1, 2026—whether through resignation, expulsion, or other means. The 66% probability reflects expectations about potential developments in Mills's tenure, though the timeframe is notably short (less than one year from today). Key drivers of this high probability likely include specific pending investigations, health matters, or other documented circumstances that could force or incentivize departure. The market will resolve based on whether Mills remains a seated member through April 30, 2026. Comparable markets show low probabilities for similar congressional departures (3-6%), suggesting this contract reflects particular circumstances unique to Mills rather than baseline congressional turnover. Resolution hinges on verifiable Congressional Quarterly records and official House records through the deadline.
- ›Current Congressional status and any formal ethics investigations or disciplinary proceedings against Mills as of May 2026
- ›Documented health or personal circumstances that could prompt voluntary departure
- ›Changes in party affiliation, primary challenges, or electoral positioning that might affect holding the seat
- ›Any pending legal proceedings with potential outcomes before May 1, 2026
- ›Comparison to baseline congressional departure rates: markets price similar representatives at 3-6%, suggesting this contract reflects Mills-specific risk factors
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (34% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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