Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-6?
Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-6?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. Dan Koh is priced as a strong favorite at 76¢, but the market shows minimal liquidity with just $7 in 24-hour volume and only $3,083 open interest, making this contract difficult to trade at scale.
Analysis
Dan Koh is priced as a strong favorite at 76¢, but the market shows minimal liquidity with just $7 in 24-hour volume and only $3,083 open interest, making this contract difficult to trade at scale. The No side offers an extreme 467.9% implied yield versus 70.8% for Yes, suggesting significant underpricing of upset scenarios or simply reflecting the thin order book where contrarian bets face poor execution. The contract has declined 5¢ over the past week despite 201 days to expiry, which could indicate either deteriorating confidence in Koh's nomination chances or simply low-volume noise in a thinly-traded market.
Resolution rules
If Dan Koh wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MA-6 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMA6D-26-DKOH yes 100