Will Jamie Belsito be the Democratic nominee for MA-6
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
130 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-6
Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-6?: Tram Nguyen
KXMA6D-26-TNGU
Cluster 2
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-6
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-6?: Dan Koh
KXMA6D-26-DKOH
Cluster 3
Will John Beccia be the Democratic nominee for MA-6
Will John Beccia be the Democratic nominee for MA-6?: John Beccia
KXMA6D-26-JBEC
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Jamie Belsito will become the Democratic nominee for Massachusetts's 6th congressional district. The 81% likelihood suggests strong confidence in this outcome, though the forecast depends on several contingencies. Key drivers include whether Belsito can maintain support among progressive Democratic primary voters, the strength and viability of competing candidates, and turnout patterns in the district. Any significant shift in candidate endorsements, fundraising dynamics, or candidate withdrawals could move this probability substantially. The primary election itself will be the definitive moment of resolution, at which point the market will either confirm or contradict current expectations based on actual voter choices.
- ›Current polling and primary performance data among registered Democratic voters in MA-6, if available
- ›Endorsement patterns from local party officials, unions, and established Democratic figures in the district
- ›Candidate fundraising totals and spending intensity in the race to date
- ›Whether competing candidates remain active or withdraw, consolidating support behind rivals
- ›Historical primary turnout and demographic composition trends in MA-6 Democratic primaries
What moved the line
- Jun 19Dan Koh↓12pp66→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Tram Nguyen↑9pp22→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Dan Koh↑9pp63→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Tram Nguyen↓5pp27→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Dan Koh↑5pp54→59¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.