Will Jamie Belsito be the Democratic nominee for MA-6
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$910
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
73 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-6
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-6?: Dan Koh
KXMA6D-26-DKOH
Cluster 2
Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-6
Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-6?: Tram Nguyen
KXMA6D-26-TNGU
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Jamie Belsito will become the Democratic nominee for Massachusetts's 6th congressional district. The 81% likelihood suggests strong confidence in this outcome, though the forecast depends on several contingencies. Key drivers include whether Belsito can maintain support among progressive Democratic primary voters, the strength and viability of competing candidates, and turnout patterns in the district. Any significant shift in candidate endorsements, fundraising dynamics, or candidate withdrawals could move this probability substantially. The primary election itself will be the definitive moment of resolution, at which point the market will either confirm or contradict current expectations based on actual voter choices.
- ›Current polling and primary performance data among registered Democratic voters in MA-6, if available
- ›Endorsement patterns from local party officials, unions, and established Democratic figures in the district
- ›Candidate fundraising totals and spending intensity in the race to date
- ›Whether competing candidates remain active or withdraw, consolidating support behind rivals
- ›Historical primary turnout and demographic composition trends in MA-6 Democratic primaries
What moved the line
- Aug 17Dan Koh↑15pp66→81¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Dan Koh↑7pp78→85¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Tram Nguyen↑4pp11→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Tram Nguyen↓3pp15→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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