Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?

Dan Sullivan's odds have declined 2 cents over the past week to 41¢, reflecting modest bearish pressure despite over 500 days until the November 2027 close. The Yes side offers an exceptionally high 105.7% annualized yield, though this is partially offset by the No side's 39.7% yield, suggesting market uncertainty rather than strong conviction in either direction. With only $40 in 24-hour volume against $19k open interest, liquidity is thin and price discovery may be limited, making the high yield figures less reliable as true opportunity indicators.

Resolution rules

If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.

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