Mary Peltola · KXAKSENATE-26NOV03
Mary Peltola is priced at 66¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 60¢ bid, 66¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside KXAKSENATE-26NOV03.
Price history
66¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If Mary Peltola wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Mary Peltola
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Mary Peltola 60¢
Range
1¢-60¢
Family volume
$206
Identifier
KXAKSENATE-26NOV03-MPEL
Jun 24, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
60¢
Ask
66¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$199
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · KXAKSENATE-26NOV03
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$206
Orderbook snapshot
60 / 66¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Mary Peltola wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXAKSENATE-26NOV03-MPEL
Event family
KXAKSENATE-26NOV03.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$206
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Mary Peltola 60¢
Current share
96%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.454
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 66% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.