at least 4 weeks · Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend
at least 4 weeks is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 29¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend.
Price history
9¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If Dandelion by Ella Langley spends at least 4 week(s) at the #1 position on the Billboard 200 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
at least 4 weeks
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
at least 3 weeks 20¢
Range
2¢-20¢
Family volume
$28
Identifier
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-DAN-4
Aug 27, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
29¢
24h volume
$28
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend
Closes
Dec 26, 2026
Family volume
$28
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 39¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Dandelion by Ella Langley spends at least 4 week(s) at the #1 position on the Billboard 200 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 26, 2026
Identifier
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-DAN-4
Event family
Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$28
Outcomes
4
Highest price
at least 3 weeks 20¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.