Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
16 contracts
Closes
Dec 26, 2026
80 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend” vs “Will Taylor Swift spend 1”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 25 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 25 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-25
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 32 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 32 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-32
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 27 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 27 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-27
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 30 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 30 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-30
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 31 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 31 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-31
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 29 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 29 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-29
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 28 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 28 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-28
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 26 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 26 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-26
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 33 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 33 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-33
Cluster 2
Will Taylor Swift spend 1
Will Taylor Swift spend 12 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 12 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-TAY-12
Will Taylor Swift spend 10 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 10 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-TAY-10
Will Taylor Swift spend 11 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 11 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-TAY-11
Cluster 3
Will ICEMAN by Drake spend
Cluster 4
Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend
Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? : at least 4 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-DAN-4
Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend 5 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? : at least 5 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-DAN-5
Analysis
This contract asks whether 'Dandelion' by Ella Langley will reach the top of the Billboard 200 album chart for at least four consecutive weeks during 2026. At 52%, the probability reflects near-even odds, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the track's commercial trajectory. The current level reflects Ella Langley's demonstrated country-music popularity—her song 'Choosin' Texas' has shown sustained chart performance—balanced against the difficulty of sustaining four-week #1 runs on the albums chart, which typically requires both strong initial sales and lasting cultural momentum. The primary drivers would be the song's actual chart performance in the coming months and competition from other releases. Resolution depends on Billboard's weekly chart data through year-end 2026, with the outcome determined by cumulative weeks at #1 across the full calendar year.
- ›Ella Langley's 'Choosin' Texas' currently trades at 67¢ for 27 weeks at #1 on Hot 100, indicating market confidence in her sustained chart presence
- ›The song would need to debut or peak on the Billboard 200 and maintain the top position for four non-consecutive or consecutive weeks within the 2026 calendar
- ›Country music albums face competition from established artists and new releases throughout 2026, affecting chart placement sustainability
- ›The contract requires the cumulative achievement by December 31, 2026, making remaining time and current chart position critical data points
- ›Streaming and sales velocity in late 2026 will be the primary determinants, as end-of-year campaigns often reshape album chart standings
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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