Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
18 contracts
Closes
Dec 26, 2026
123 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 2” vs “Will Taylor Swift spend”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 2
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 26 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 26 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-26
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 22 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 22 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-22
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 27 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 27 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-27
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 24 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 24 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-24
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 23 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 23 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-23
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 21 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 21 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-21
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 20 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 20 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-20
Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 25 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 25 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-CHO-25
Cluster 2
Will Taylor Swift spend
Will Taylor Swift spend 12 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 12 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-TAY-12
Will Taylor Swift spend 6 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 6 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-TAY-6
Will Taylor Swift spend 11 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 11 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-TAY-11
Will Taylor Swift spend 10 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 10 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-TAY-10
Will Taylor Swift spend 9 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?: At least 9 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-TAY-9
Cluster 3
Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend
Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend 3 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? : at least 3 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-DAN-3
Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend 5 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? : at least 5 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-DAN-5
Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? : at least 4 weeks
KXWEEKSNUM1-26DEC26-DAN-4
Cluster 4
Will ICEMAN by Drake spend
Analysis
This question asks whether Ella Langley's song 'Dandelion' will occupy the #1 position on the Billboard 200 albums chart for at least four consecutive weeks during 2026. The current 26% probability reflects modest expectations for a four-week run at the top spot. Chart performance depends on sustained consumer demand, competitive releases from other artists, and streaming plus sales volume. Country music albums have faced increased competition on the Billboard 200 in recent years. The outcome will be determined by Billboard's weekly rankings as they are published throughout 2026, with the critical period being whenever the song peaks on the chart and the weeks immediately following.
- ›Ella Langley's existing fanbase size and streaming engagement metrics compared to typical artists achieving four-week #1 runs
- ›The competitive landscape of major album releases scheduled for 2026 that would compete for chart dominance during potential peak weeks
- ›Historical performance data for country music albums on the Billboard 200 in recent years and their typical chart longevity
- ›Whether 'Dandelion' builds momentum as a single or album track, measured by radio airplay and streaming platform trends
- ›The difference between chart peaks (which many albums achieve briefly) and sustained four-week tenure at #1 (which relatively few albums accomplish)
What moved the line
- Aug 24At least 26 weeks↓47pp62→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22At least 24 weeks↑36pp29→65¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22At least 26 weeks↑35pp18→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22At least 25 weeks↑33pp21→54¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19At least 26 weeks↓16pp48→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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