Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing June 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a substantial 206.6% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 35¢ price may not reflect true consensus given only $2,687 in open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a substantial 206.6% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 35¢ price may not reflect true consensus given only $2,687 in open interest. The 233% realized volatility and 1.67 vol ratio indicate significant price swings relative to market depth, with the recent decline from 31¢ to 29¢ potentially reflecting information arrival at a modest 0.3 events per hour. With 433 days to expiry and a low cliff risk index of 2, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market validation rather than a liquid pricing mechanism.
Resolution rules
If Darializa Avila Chevalier wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-13 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNY13D-26-DCHE yes 100