SimpleFunctions

Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate · KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB

Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate? is priced at 70¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 70¢ bid, 71¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

70¢ current

+1¢
70¢
May 25, 2026Jun 23, 2026

Contract brief

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$158

Identifier

KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB

Jun 24, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 13m ago

Implied probability

70¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 24, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 13m ago

Bid

70¢

Ask

71¢

Spread

24h volume

$158

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Feb 1, 2027

Family volume

$158

Orderbook snapshot

70 / 71¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
70¢1.4K
69¢609
68¢3.9K
67¢3.7K
66¢2.7K
AskSize
71¢158
72¢2.0K
73¢167
74¢2.0K
75¢5.5K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Feb 1, 2027

Identifier

KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB

SF Signal
SF Index
191.52
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$158

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate? 70¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

political

Full indicator table

70.4%
383.0%
Adj IY
192%
2

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SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.