Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate · KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB
Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate? is priced at 36¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 36¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
36¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$6
Identifier
KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB
Jun 23, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
36¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$6
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$6
Orderbook snapshot
36 / 39¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB
Event family
KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate? 36¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.442
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.