6 · Will Democrats win
6 is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside Will Democrats win.
Price history
19¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the Democratic party has won exactly 6 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Virginia, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
6
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
7 32¢
Range
5¢-32¢
Family volume
$249
Identifier
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-6
Jun 25, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$10K
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · Will Democrats win
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$249
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic party has won exactly 6 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Virginia, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-6
Event family
Will Democrats win.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$249
Outcomes
6
Highest price
7 32¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.