Will Democrats win exactly 6 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections
Leader sits at 40% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
7
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
6
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$28K
liquid
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
543 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win
Will Democrats win exactly 10 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 10
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-10
Will Democrats win exactly 9 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 9
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-9
Will Democrats win exactly 7 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 7
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-7
Will Democrats win exactly 8 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 8
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-8
Will Democrats win below 6 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: Below 6
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-BELOW6
Will Democrats win exactly 6 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 6
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-6
Analysis
This contract asks whether Democrats will win exactly 6 seats in Virginia House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 2026. The 55% probability shown reflects the highest-priced outcome in this three-way market: Democrats winning exactly 10 seats instead. The current weighting suggests significant uncertainty about Democratic performance in Virginia, with outcomes ranging from 6 to 10+ seats clustered as plausible. Key drivers of the probability include Virginia's overall political lean, which has trended Democratic in statewide races, and the specific partisan composition of Virginia House districts. The primary resolution event is the November 2026 election itself, when actual seat counts will be determined. Until then, shifts in this probability would likely reflect changes in polling, demographic patterns, or campaign activity signaling how many seats Democrats might realistically capture.
- ›Virginia's statewide electoral lean in recent cycles (2022, 2024) relative to national conditions
- ›The number of competitive House districts where seat gains or losses are plausible
- ›How campaign fundraising and candidate recruitment develops in Virginia House races through 2026
- ›Changes in voter turnout expectations or demographic shifts in key districts
- ›Polling data on generic ballot preferences for Democratic versus Republican candidates in Virginia
What moved the line
- May 66↑8pp9→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 710↑5pp52→57¢ · Kalshi
- May 26↓5pp14→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 79↑3pp8→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 27↓3pp13→10¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.