Will Democrats win exactly 6 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections
Leader sits at 32% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
7
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
8
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$249
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win
Will Democrats win below 6 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: Below 6
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-BELOW6
Will Democrats win exactly 10 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 10
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-10
Will Democrats win exactly 9 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 9
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-9
Will Democrats win exactly 8 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 8
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-8
Will Democrats win exactly 6 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 6
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-6
Will Democrats win exactly 7 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?: 7
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-7
Analysis
This contract asks whether Democrats will win exactly 6 seats in Virginia House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 2026. The 55% probability shown reflects the highest-priced outcome in this three-way market: Democrats winning exactly 10 seats instead. The current weighting suggests significant uncertainty about Democratic performance in Virginia, with outcomes ranging from 6 to 10+ seats clustered as plausible. Key drivers of the probability include Virginia's overall political lean, which has trended Democratic in statewide races, and the specific partisan composition of Virginia House districts. The primary resolution event is the November 2026 election itself, when actual seat counts will be determined. Until then, shifts in this probability would likely reflect changes in polling, demographic patterns, or campaign activity signaling how many seats Democrats might realistically capture.
- ›Virginia's statewide electoral lean in recent cycles (2022, 2024) relative to national conditions
- ›The number of competitive House districts where seat gains or losses are plausible
- ›How campaign fundraising and candidate recruitment develops in Virginia House races through 2026
- ›Changes in voter turnout expectations or demographic shifts in key districts
- ›Polling data on generic ballot preferences for Democratic versus Republican candidates in Virginia
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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