Democratic party · KXEXITPOLL-WHIWOM
Democratic party is priced at 77¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 75¢ bid, 83¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXEXITPOLL-WHIWOM.
Price history
77¢ current
Contract brief
If the Democratic Party wins white women in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democratic party
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Democratic party 54¢
Range
10¢-54¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXEXITPOLL-WHIWOM-DEM
Sep 23, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
75¢
Ask
83¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$409
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXEXITPOLL-WHIWOM
Closes
Nov 6, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
75 / 83¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic Party wins white women in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 6, 2026
Identifier
KXEXITPOLL-WHIWOM-DEM
Event family
KXEXITPOLL-WHIWOM.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Democratic party 54¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 77% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.