Will Democrats win older women (65+) in the exit poll
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$496
14 contracts
Closes
Nov 6, 2026
45 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Republicans win
Will Republicans win independents in the exit poll?: Republican party
KXEXITPOLL-IND-REP
Will Republicans win Latino men in the exit poll?: Republican party
KXEXITPOLL-LATMEN-REP
Will Republicans win older women (65+) in the exit poll?: Republican party
KXEXITPOLL-OLDWOM-REP
Will Republicans win white college-educated men in the exit poll?: Republican party
KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN-REP
Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll?: Republican party
KXEXITPOLL-WHIWOM-REP
Will Republicans win white suburban women in the exit poll?: Republican party
KXEXITPOLL-WSUBWOM-REP
Will Republicans win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?: Republican party
KXEXITPOLL-YOUMEN-REP
Cluster 2
Will Democrats win
Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?: Democratic party
KXEXITPOLL-YOUMEN-DEM
Will Democrats win independents in the exit poll?: Democratic party
KXEXITPOLL-IND-DEM
Will Democrats win Latino men in the exit poll?: Democratic party
KXEXITPOLL-LATMEN-DEM
Will Democrats win older women (65+) in the exit poll?: Democratic party
KXEXITPOLL-OLDWOM-DEM
Will Democrats win white college-educated men in the exit poll?: Democratic party
KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN-DEM
Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?: Democratic party
KXEXITPOLL-WHIWOM-DEM
Will Democrats win white suburban women in the exit poll?: Democratic party
KXEXITPOLL-WSUBWOM-DEM
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that Democrats will win the over-65 female vote in the 2026 election based on exit poll results. At 21%, the market implies Republicans are heavily favored to win this demographic. Older women have traditionally leaned Republican in recent cycles, though this group has shown some movement toward Democrats in recent elections. The current low probability reflects both historical voting patterns and recent polling trends. The resolution will depend on final exit poll data released on election night 2026, which will provide the definitive breakdown of how women 65 and older voted. Key dynamics shaping this probability include overall campaign messaging on issues like healthcare and Social Security, turnout rates among older voters, and any major events affecting senior voter sentiment between now and November 2026.
- ›Historical voting patterns show Republicans consistently winning women 65+ in recent presidential elections by margins of 8-12 percentage points
- ›Exit poll methodology and sample composition can create variance in results compared to actual vote totals, particularly for demographic subgroups
- ›Healthcare policy messaging and Social Security proposals are primary issues influencing older women's voting behavior
- ›Turnout rates among older voters relative to other demographics will affect which candidate's message reaches this group most effectively
- ›Major policy events or legislative actions between September 2026 and November 2026 could shift senior voter preferences
What moved the line
- Sep 18Democratic party↑13pp50→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Democratic party↑3pp83→86¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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