Will exactly 1 Senate Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?
This contract is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 5¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
4
Family volume
$1K
Best sibling
2 5¢
Ticker
KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATED-26NOV03-1
Market snapshot
1 in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will exactly 1 Senate Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?. The displayed quote is 13¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $796. In the KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATED-26NOV03 family, this outcome ranks #2 of 4 by current quote across 4 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 8:53 AM UTC.
Outcome
1
Family rank
#2 of 4
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
13¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Nov 3, 2026
24h volume
$796
Family context
4 outcomes · KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATED-26NOV03
Quote range
1¢-79¢
Family leader
0 79¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 8:53 AM UTC · 14m ago
Venue identifier: KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATED-26NOV03-1. Family volume: $1K.
Price history
13¢ current
+3¢Orderbook snapshot
14 / 19¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If the number of Democratic Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 03, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATED-26NOV03-1
Event family
KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATED-26NOV03.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
0 79¢
Current share
58%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 13% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.