Will exactly 1 Senate Democratic members lose their primary in 2026
Leader sits at 57% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
0
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
1
Spread
38pp
contested
24h volume
$172
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
133 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will exactly
Will exactly 0 Senate Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?: 0
KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATED-26NOV03-0
Will exactly 1 Senate Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?: 1
KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATED-26NOV03-1
Will exactly 2 Senate Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?: 2
KXLOSEPRIMARYSENATED-26NOV03-2
Analysis
This market estimates an 83% probability that exactly one Democratic senator will lose their primary election in 2026. Primary losses among incumbent senators are relatively rare, particularly within a single party in one cycle. The high probability reflects expectations of strong Democratic incumbency advantages and limited primary challenges, though it could shift if high-profile primaries develop or if incumbent senators face unexpected internal-party opposition. The outcome will be definitively settled after all Senate primaries conclude in late 2026, with most states holding primaries between August and September.
- ›Number of vulnerable Democratic incumbents facing organized primary opposition as of spring 2026
- ›Fundraising and polling performance of Democratic senators relative to potential challengers in their respective states
- ›Turnout levels in Democratic primaries, which could amplify or diminish the impact of anti-incumbent sentiment
- ›Timing and intensity of internal party dynamics, particularly around policy disagreements or controversial votes
- ›Completion of all Senate Democratic primaries by November 2026, which will directly determine the outcome
What moved the line
- Jun 200↑7pp52→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 170↓5pp61→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 180↓4pp56→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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