Filippo Ganna · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10
Filippo Ganna is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10.
Price history
1¢ current
Contract brief
If Filippo Ganna wins Stage 10 in the 2026 Tour de France Cycling Grand Tour originally scheduled on Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Filippo Ganna
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
Tadej Pogacar 60¢
Range
1¢-60¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-FGAN
Jul 13, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 1h ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$361
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Filippo Ganna wins Stage 10 in the 2026 Tour de France Cycling Grand Tour originally scheduled on Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
Identifier
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-FGAN
Event family
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Tadej Pogacar 60¢
Current share
10%
Tadej Pogacar
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-TPOG
Ben Healy
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-BHEA
Lenny Martinez
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-LMAR
Thomas Pidcock
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-TPID
Romain Gregoire
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-RGRE
Alex Baudin
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-ABAU
Alexander Aranburu Deba
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-AARA
Filippo Ganna
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-FGAN
Abel Balderstone
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-ABAL
Anthon Charmig
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-ACHA
Remco Evenepoel
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-REVE
Jonas Vingegaard
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-JVIN
Tobias Halland Johannessen
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-THAL
Richard Carapaz
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-RCAR
Isaac Del Toro Romero
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-IDEL
Javier Romo
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-JROM
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.