Tadej Pogacar · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10
Tadej Pogacar is priced at 61¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 22¢ bid, 61¢ ask, 39¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 11 inside KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10.
Price history
61¢ current
+60¢Contract brief
If Tadej Pogacar wins Stage 10 in the 2026 Tour de France Cycling Grand Tour originally scheduled on Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Tadej Pogacar
Rank
#4 of 11
Leader
Abel Balderstone 94¢
Range
1¢-94¢
Family volume
$811
Identifier
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-TPOG
Jul 12, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
22¢
Ask
61¢
Spread
39¢
24h volume
$409
Family rank
#4 of 11
11 outcomes · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
Family volume
$811
Orderbook snapshot
22 / 61¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Tadej Pogacar wins Stage 10 in the 2026 Tour de France Cycling Grand Tour originally scheduled on Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
Identifier
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-TPOG
Event family
KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$811
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Abel Balderstone 94¢
Current share
41%
Abel Balderstone
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-ABAL
Anthon Charmig
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-ACHA
Filippo Ganna
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-FGAN
Tadej Pogacar
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-TPOG
Alexander Aranburu Deba
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-AARA
Ben Healy
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-BHEA
Lenny Martinez
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-LMAR
Thomas Pidcock
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-TPID
Romain Gregoire
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-RGRE
Alex Baudin
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-ABAU
Javier Romo
kalshi · KXCYCLINGSTAGE-26TDFRSTAGE10-JROM
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.