Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 37% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
At least 37% is priced at 54¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 53¢ bid, 54¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 10 inside Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least.
Price history
54¢ current
+50¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 37% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 37%
Rank
#7 of 10
Leader
At least 21% 92¢
Range
8¢-92¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-37
Sep 7, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
53¢
Ask
54¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#7 of 10
10 outcomes · Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
53 / 54¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 37% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-37
Event family
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
10
Highest price
At least 21% 92¢
Current share
—
At least 21%
kalshi · KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-21
At least 26%
kalshi · KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-26
At least 29%
kalshi · KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-29
At least 31%
kalshi · KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-31
At least 33%
kalshi · KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-33
At least 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-35
At least 37%
kalshi · KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-37
At least 39%
kalshi · KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-39
At least 42%
kalshi · KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-42
At least 47%
kalshi · KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-47
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.