Will Renan Santos receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 58% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
58%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
392 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 21%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-21
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 47% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 47%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-47
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 42%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-42
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 39% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 39%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-39
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 37% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 37%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-37
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 35%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-35
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 33% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 33%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-33
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 31% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 31%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-31
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 29% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 29%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-29
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 26%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26FBOL-26
Cluster 2
Will Augusto Cury receive at least
Will Augusto Cury receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 1%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26ACUR-1
Will Augusto Cury receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 8%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26ACUR-8
Will Augusto Cury receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 6%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26ACUR-6
Will Augusto Cury receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 4%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26ACUR-4
Will Augusto Cury receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 3%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26ACUR-3
Will Augusto Cury receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 20%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26ACUR-20
Will Augusto Cury receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 2%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26ACUR-2
Will Augusto Cury receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 15%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26ACUR-15
Will Augusto Cury receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: At least 10%
KXVOTEBR1-BRPRES26ACUR-10
Cluster 3
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receive at least 37% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Analysis
This market estimates a 44% chance that Renan Santos, a lesser-known political figure, will capture at least 2% of votes in Brazil's 2026 presidential election. The probability reflects uncertainty around third-party and independent candidate viability in what appears to be a two-candidate race dominated by Lula (whose 48%+ vote share is priced at only 16 cents) and Flávio Bolsonaro (92 cents for 26%+). The outcome depends on whether Santos can build sufficient campaign infrastructure and donor backing to reach the 2% threshold, and whether anti-establishment or alternative voters coalesce around his candidacy rather than other third-party options. The election occurs in October 2026, providing the definitive resolution point. Market participants are pricing in substantial fragmentation beyond the top two candidates, though contracts on Lula and Bolsonaro's vote shares suggest concentrated support among leading contenders.
- ›Renan Santos's campaign funding and organizational capacity relative to other third-party candidates as of mid-2026
- ›Whether anti-Lula or anti-Bolsonaro voters choose Santos specifically versus other alternative candidates to fragment the 2% threshold
- ›Historical Brazilian election data showing typical third-candidate vote share distribution and whether 2% represents above or below recent patterns
- ›Recent polling releases specifically naming Santos and his support levels among eligible voters
- ›Electoral registration deadlines and Santos's formal candidacy status as the election approaches
What moved the line
- Sep 3At least 29%↑76pp16→92¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2At least 26%↑68pp25→93¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2At least 37%↑66pp21→87¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2At least 3%↑54pp25→79¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3At least 31%↑54pp32→86¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In election 2026
Related reading
2026 US Senate Race Markets Tighten: Texas a Toss-Up, Senate Control in Play
2026 Senate race markets are heating up, with Texas a near toss-up (Republican 52¢, Democrat 48¢) and Michigan and Maine showing Democratic advantages. The overall Senate control market is split, with Republicans at 52¢ and Democrats at 47¢, signaling a highly competitive battle for the chamber.
Midterms 2026: Democrats Favored for House, Senate a Coin Flip
The 2026 US midterm elections are the most traded topic, with the House control market at 84¢ for Democrats and Senate control essentially tied at 52¢ Republican vs 47¢ Democratic. The Texas Senate race is a pure 50/50 toss‑up. Brazilian election shows Lula leading but not decisively. Any new polling data or candidate announcements will move these markets sharply.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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