SimpleFunctions

Forever by The Big Moon have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week

Above 2K is priced at 67¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 96¢ ask, 88¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Will Forever by The Big Moon have above.

Price history

67¢ current

12¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Aug 25, 2026Aug 27, 2026

Contract brief

If Forever by The Big Moon has above 2K Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 2K

Rank

#1 of 6

Leader

Above 2K 7¢

Range

1¢-7¢

Family volume

$857

Identifier

KXALBUMEQUIV-FOR26NOV05-2K

Aug 27, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 17m ago

Implied probability

67¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 27, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 17m ago

Bid

Ask

96¢

Spread

88¢

24h volume

$132

Family rank

#1 of 6

6 outcomes · Will Forever by The Big Moon have above

Closes

Nov 8, 2026

Family volume

$857

Orderbook snapshot

8 / 96¢

Kalshi
88¢ spread
BidSize
100¢104
8¢26
7¢27
5¢72
2¢231
AskSize
96¢24
97¢180
98¢72
99¢104

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Forever by The Big Moon has above 2K Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 8, 2026

Identifier

KXALBUMEQUIV-FOR26NOV05-2K

SF Signal
SF Index
6626.43
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will Forever by The Big Moon have above.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$857

Outcomes

6

Highest price

Above 2K 7¢

Current share

15%

Browse this series

Artist Album-Equivalent-Units Forecast Markets
Per-series collection — every live contract in the KXALBUMEQUIV series on Kalshi, sorted by 24h volume.

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

6626.4%

IY (No)

37.5%

Adj IY

6626%

CRI

13

RV

24489%

VR

39.12

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

6626.4%
37.5%
Adj IY
6626%
13
RV
24489%
VR
39.12
IAR
0.7/h
Overround
-0.8%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Opinionanalysis

Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident

A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.