Will Noah Kahan have above 150000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during April 24, 2026 - April 30, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
18 contracts
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
62 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above” vs “Will Ariana Grande have above”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 100000 Pure Album Sales during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 100K
KXALBUMEQUIV-DAU26JUL23-100K
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 150000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 150K
KXALBUMEQUIV-DAU26JUL23B-150K
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 170000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 170K
KXALBUMEQUIV-DAU26JUL23-170K
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 75000 Pure Album Sales during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 75K
KXALBUMEQUIV-DAU26JUL23-75K
Cluster 2
Will Ariana Grande have above
Will Ariana Grande have above 300000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026?: Above 300K
KXALBUMEQUIV-PET26AUG06-300K
Will Ariana Grande have above 250000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026?: Above 250K
KXALBUMEQUIV-PET26AUG06-250K
Will Ariana Grande have above 950000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026?: Above 950K
KXALBUMEQUIV-PET26AUG06-950K
Will Ariana Grande have above 350000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026?: Above 350K
KXALBUMEQUIV-PET26AUG06-350K
Cluster 3
Will Cry Baby by Vince Staples have above
Will Cry Baby by Vince Staples have above 3000 Album Equivalent Units during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 3K
KXALBUMEQUIV-CRY26JUN11-3K
Will Cry Baby by Vince Staples have above 6000 Album Equivalent Units during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 6K
KXALBUMEQUIV-CRY26JUN11-6K
Will Cry Baby by Vince Staples have above 21000 Album Equivalent Units during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 21K
KXALBUMEQUIV-CRY26JUN11-21K
Cluster 4
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love by Olivia Rodrigo have above 4
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love by Olivia Rodrigo have above 400000 Album Equivalent Units during the June 12, 2026 - June 18, 2026 tracking week?: Above 400K
KXALBUMEQUIV-YOU26JUN18-400K
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love by Olivia Rodrigo have above 450000 Album Equivalent Units during the June 12, 2026 - June 18, 2026 tracking week?: Above 450K
KXALBUMEQUIV-YOU26JUN18-450K
Cluster 5
Will BITCH by Lizzo have above
Will BITCH by Lizzo have above 80000 Album Equivalent Units during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 80K
KXALBUMEQUIV-BIT26JUN11-80K
Will BITCH by Lizzo have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week?: Above 30K
KXALBUMEQUIV-BIT26JUN11-30K
Cluster 6
Will DIRTY BLONDE by Bebe Rexha have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the June 12, 2026 - June 18, 2026 tracking week
Cluster 7
Will Do That Again by Malcolm Todd have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the June 5, 2026 - June 11, 2026 tracking week
Cluster 8
Will Visitor (Deluxe) by SIENNA SPIRO have above 125000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week
Analysis
This probability reflects a 67% chance that Noah Kahan accumulated more than 150,000 Album Equivalent Units (AEUs) on Luminate during the final week of April 2026. AEUs combine streaming plays, downloads, and physical sales into a single metric used by the music industry to measure commercial performance. The prediction sits relatively high, suggesting analysts expect Kahan to maintain substantial streaming and sales activity during that period. Key factors influencing this estimate include his current chart momentum, recent release schedule, and typical listener engagement patterns. Luminate publishes weekly AEU data with a lag, meaning the precise figure for April 24-30 will become verifiable once officially released, resolving all uncertainty around this specific week's performance. The current probability may shift based on any streaming trends, promotional activities, or competitive releases during that timeframe.
- ›Noah Kahan's streaming volume and listener base as of early May 2026, which determines if 150K AEUs is consistent with recent weekly performance
- ›The release schedule and competitive landscape in late April 2026—new major releases or promotional campaigns could significantly impact his AEU count
- ›Historical weekly AEU data for Kahan from prior weeks, establishing whether 150K represents typical output or an above-average threshold
- ›Luminate's official publication of April 24-30 AEU figures, which will provide definitive resolution without interpretation
- ›Any significant charting or streaming milestones Kahan achieved in May that would retroactively confirm or contradict the high probability estimate
What moved the line
- Jun 6Above 6K↓82pp83→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Above 3K↓43pp93→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Above 6K↑42pp1→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Above 400K↓31pp43→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Above 400K↑19pp29→48¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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