Will Noah Kahan have above 150000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during April 24, 2026 - April 30, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$41K
16 contracts
Closes
Sep 6, 2026
45 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 27% of their title tokens — “Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above” vs “Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 120000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 120K
KXALBUMEQUIV-DAU26JUL23B-120K
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 130000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 130K
KXALBUMEQUIV-DAU26JUL23B-130K
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 135000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 135K
KXALBUMEQUIV-DAU26JUL23-135K
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 80000 Pure Album Sales during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 80K
KXALBUMEQUIV-DAU26JUL23-80K
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 85000 Pure Album Sales during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 85K
KXALBUMEQUIV-DAU26JUL23-85K
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 140K
KXALBUMEQUIV-DAU26JUL23B-140K
Will Daughter From Hell by Gracie Abrams have above 75000 Pure Album Sales during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 75K
KXALBUMEQUIV-DAU26JUL23-75K
Cluster 2
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 35000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 35K
KXALBUMEQUIV-OHY26JUL23-35K
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 40K
KXALBUMEQUIV-OHY26JUL23-40K
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 30K
KXALBUMEQUIV-OHY26JUL23-30K
Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 45000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 45K
KXALBUMEQUIV-OHY26JUL23-45K
Cluster 3
Will SET IN STONE by Rick Ross have above
Will SET IN STONE by Rick Ross have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K
KXALBUMEQUIV-SET26JUL23-20K
Will SET IN STONE by Rick Ross have above 17000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week?: Above 17K
KXALBUMEQUIV-SET26JUL23-17K
Cluster 4
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 100000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 100K
KXALBUMEQUIV-MUS26JUL30-100K
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 75000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week?: Above 75K
KXALBUMEQUIV-MUS26JUL30-75K
Cluster 5
Will Ariana Grande have above 350000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Noah Kahan will achieve above 150,000 Album Equivalent Units (AEUs) during the final week of April 2026. The 44% probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether the artist will reach this threshold during that specific tracking period. Noah Kahan's streaming performance and release schedule are the primary drivers of this prediction. His recent album "Stick Season" performed well commercially, but maintaining a 150K AEU weekly floor during a non-peak release window would be substantial. The contract resolves when Luminate publishes official chart data for the April 24-30 tracking week, which typically occurs in early May. Key variables include whether Kahan releases new music before or during that week, the overall streaming momentum of his catalog, and competitive pressure from other major releases during that period.
- ›Noah Kahan's highest-charting weeks in 2024-2025 typically ranged between 80K-120K AEUs, making 150K represent a significant performance level for a non-release week
- ›Whether Kahan schedules a new single or album drop on or before April 24, 2026, which would substantially boost that week's metrics
- ›Competitive landscape during April 24-30, 2026, including simultaneous major releases from other artists that could fragment streaming share
- ›Historical seasonality patterns for his catalog streaming in late April and whether catalog streams sustain during slower release periods
- ›Current trajectory of his streaming platform momentum as of July 2026 relative to the April tracking week being predicted
What moved the line
- Jul 22Above 130K↓44pp84→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Above 85K↓40pp64→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Above 135K↓32pp49→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Above 80K↓31pp65→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Above 140K↓29pp71→42¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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