Will Noah Kahan have above 150000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during April 24, 2026 - April 30, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
12 contracts
Closes
Nov 8, 2026
47 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Everything Under The Sun by Nickelback have above
Will Everything Under The Sun by Nickelback have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 15K
KXALBUMEQUIV-EVE26NOV05-15K
Will Everything Under The Sun by Nickelback have above 75000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 75K
KXALBUMEQUIV-EVE26NOV05-75K
Will Everything Under The Sun by Nickelback have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 50K
KXALBUMEQUIV-EVE26NOV05-50K
Will Everything Under The Sun by Nickelback have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 40K
KXALBUMEQUIV-EVE26NOV05-40K
Will Everything Under The Sun by Nickelback have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 30K
KXALBUMEQUIV-EVE26NOV05-30K
Will Everything Under The Sun by Nickelback have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 25K
KXALBUMEQUIV-EVE26NOV05-25K
Will Everything Under The Sun by Nickelback have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K
KXALBUMEQUIV-EVE26NOV05-20K
Cluster 2
Will Forever by The Big Moon have above
Will Forever by The Big Moon have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 2K
KXALBUMEQUIV-FOR26NOV05-2K
Will Forever by The Big Moon have above 12000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 12K
KXALBUMEQUIV-FOR26NOV05-12K
Will Forever by The Big Moon have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K
KXALBUMEQUIV-FOR26NOV05-10K
Will Forever by The Big Moon have above 7000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 7K
KXALBUMEQUIV-FOR26NOV05-7K
Will Forever by The Big Moon have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K
KXALBUMEQUIV-FOR26NOV05-5K
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Noah Kahan will achieve above 150,000 Album Equivalent Units (AEUs) during the final week of April 2026. The 44% probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether the artist will reach this threshold during that specific tracking period. Noah Kahan's streaming performance and release schedule are the primary drivers of this prediction. His recent album "Stick Season" performed well commercially, but maintaining a 150K AEU weekly floor during a non-peak release window would be substantial. The contract resolves when Luminate publishes official chart data for the April 24-30 tracking week, which typically occurs in early May. Key variables include whether Kahan releases new music before or during that week, the overall streaming momentum of his catalog, and competitive pressure from other major releases during that period.
- ›Noah Kahan's highest-charting weeks in 2024-2025 typically ranged between 80K-120K AEUs, making 150K represent a significant performance level for a non-release week
- ›Whether Kahan schedules a new single or album drop on or before April 24, 2026, which would substantially boost that week's metrics
- ›Competitive landscape during April 24-30, 2026, including simultaneous major releases from other artists that could fragment streaming share
- ›Historical seasonality patterns for his catalog streaming in late April and whether catalog streams sustain during slower release periods
- ›Current trajectory of his streaming platform momentum as of July 2026 relative to the April tracking week being predicted
What moved the line
- Sep 18Above 2K↑37pp5→42¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 20K↓33pp76→43¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above 40K↑32pp4→36¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above 20K↑29pp43→72¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 25K↓29pp63→34¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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