France · KXWCROUND-26QUAR
France is priced at 65¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 63¢ bid, 65¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside KXWCROUND-26QUAR.
Price history
65¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If France is one of the teams to qualify for the Quarterfinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
France
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
Argentina 67¢
Range
5¢-67¢
Family volume
$161K
Identifier
KXWCROUND-26QUAR-FRA
Jun 24, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
63¢
Ask
65¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$10K
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · KXWCROUND-26QUAR
Closes
Aug 3, 2026
Family volume
$161K
Orderbook snapshot
63 / 65¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If France is one of the teams to qualify for the Quarterfinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 3, 2026
Identifier
KXWCROUND-26QUAR-FRA
Event family
KXWCROUND-26QUAR.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$161K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Argentina 67¢
Current share
6%
Argentina
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-ARG
France
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-FRA
England
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-ENG
Spain
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-ESP
Portugal
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-POR
USA
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-USA
Netherlands
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-NED
Brazil
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-BRA
Norway
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-NOR
Colombia
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-COL
Mexico
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-MEX
Japan
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-JPN
Belgium
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-BEL
Egypt
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-EGY
Cape Verde
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-CPV
Bosnia and Herzegovina
kalshi · KXWCROUND-26QUAR-BIH
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 65% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.