Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2031. The market prices Jeffries at a substantial 75% probability with a notably asymmetric yield profile—the No side offers 63.6% implied yield versus just 7.1% for Yes, reflecting the binary nature of Speaker succession.
Analysis
The market prices Jeffries at a substantial 75% probability with a notably asymmetric yield profile—the No side offers 63.6% implied yield versus just 7.1% for Yes, reflecting the binary nature of Speaker succession. With only $8 in 24-hour volume against $3,909 open interest and a tight 3¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to the position size, creating potential execution challenges for larger trades. The 1,721-day timeframe to expiry and neutral regime score (0.409) suggest the market is pricing in genuine uncertainty about future congressional dynamics, though the high Yes probability may warrant scrutiny given the low trading activity.
Resolution rules
If Hakeem Jeffries is the first Speaker of the House after Mike Johnson, before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEXTSPEAKER-31-HJEF yes 100