Patrick Dempsey · Will it be confirmed that
Patrick Dempsey is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 13 inside Will it be confirmed that.
Price history
13¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If Patrick Dempsey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Patrick Dempsey
Rank
#5 of 13
Leader
Troy Jackson 51¢
Range
1¢-51¢
Family volume
$140K
Identifier
KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-PDEM
Jul 7, 2026, 7:11 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$14K
Family rank
#5 of 13
13 outcomes · Will it be confirmed that
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$140K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Patrick Dempsey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-PDEM
Event family
Will it be confirmed that.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$140K
Outcomes
13
Highest price
Troy Jackson 51¢
Current share
10%
Troy Jackson
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-TJAC
Nirav Shah
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-NSHA
Shenna Bellows
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-SBEL
Graham Platner
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-GPLA
Patrick Dempsey
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-PDEM
No one
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-NOONE
Dan Kleban
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-DKLE
Janet Mills
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-JMIL
Mattie Daughtrey
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-MDAU
Sara Gideon
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-SGID
Valli Geiger
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-VGEI
Brian Bryant
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-BBRY
Jared Golden
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-JGOL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.