Nirav Shah · Will it be confirmed that
Nirav Shah is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Will it be confirmed that.
Price history
14¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Nirav Shah
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Troy Jackson 45¢
Range
1¢-45¢
Family volume
$1.0M
Identifier
KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-NSHA
Jul 9, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$41K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Will it be confirmed that
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$1.0M
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-NSHA
Event family
Will it be confirmed that.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.0M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Troy Jackson 45¢
Current share
4%
Troy Jackson
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-TJAC
Shenna Bellows
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-SBEL
Nirav Shah
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-NSHA
Dan Kleban
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-DKLE
Graham Platner
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-GPLA
Sara Gideon
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-SGID
Janet Mills
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-JMIL
Valli Geiger
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-VGEI
No one
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-NOONE
Jared Golden
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-JGOL
Patrick Dempsey
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-PDEM
Emily Cain
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-ECAI
Mattie Daughtrey
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-MDAU
Chellie Pingree
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-CPIN
Jordan Wood
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-JWOO
Brian Bryant
kalshi · KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-BBRY
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.