Before Nov 1, 2026 · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before
Before Nov 1, 2026 is priced at 48¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 48¢ bid, 49¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before.
Price history
48¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Nov 1, 2026
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 66¢
Range
13¢-66¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXTARIFFAGREE-27-26NOV01
Sep 23, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
48¢
Ask
49¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$198
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
48 / 49¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTARIFFAGREE-27-26NOV01
Event family
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 66¢
Current share
11%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 48% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.