Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before Sep 1, 2026
Leader sits at 58% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 56%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
56¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$28
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
100 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXTARIFFAGREE-27-26OCT01
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXTARIFFAGREE-27-27JAN01
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXTARIFFAGREE-27-26DEC01
Analysis
Market participants estimate an 88% probability that the U.S. and China will announce a new mutual tariff agreement before January 1, 2027, with much lower odds (6%) for an agreement by September 1, 2026. The high overall probability reflects ongoing trade negotiations and political incentives for both governments to reach a deal, but the sharp decline in near-term probabilities suggests markets expect any agreement to take several months rather than materialize immediately. Key factors include the stated negotiating positions of both administrations, recent diplomatic communications, and historical patterns of U.S.-China trade negotiations. The timeframe matters significantly: traders are confident a deal will eventually emerge by year-end, but skeptical of imminent resolution within weeks.
- ›Current status of active trade negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials, including any scheduled talks or official statements about timeline expectations
- ›Economic indicators and tariff impacts in both countries that might create urgency or reduce pressure to reach agreement quickly
- ›Changes in U.S. or Chinese political leadership positions, policy shifts, or public statements that would signal willingness or unwillingness to compromise
- ›Historical precedent: previous U.S.-China trade agreements and typical negotiation duration from serious talks to public announcement
- ›Market pricing across the five time-based contracts shows declining probability with shorter deadlines, suggesting traders believe September and October resolution are unlikely but agreement by year-end is probable
What moved the line
- Sep 17Before Oct 1, 2026↓48pp53→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Before Oct 1, 2026↑34pp7→41¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Before Jan 1, 2027↑32pp34→66¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Before Jan 1, 2027↓20pp54→34¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Before Jan 1, 2027↓5pp66→61¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 54% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 35% · 1d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 9d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 9d
- Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.0%last 87% · 11d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Copper crash signals recession fears as VIX jumps
Copper (CPER) dropped -2.37% to $38.27 while the VIX rose +0.87% to $17.49. This classic recession indicator combination has historically preceded economic contractions. Traders should watch for further copper weakness confirming demand destruction.
Copper Plunges 2.37% – Recession Signal or China Demand Fears?
Copper (CPER) dropped sharply, the second-worst performer after EEM, raising recession alarms. Combined with a slight VIX uptick and flat equities, the message is caution.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.