Before Oct 1, 2026 · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before
Before Oct 1, 2026 is priced at 41¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 47¢ bid, 65¢ ask, 18¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before.
Price history
41¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
If the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Oct 1, 2026
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 58¢
Range
1¢-58¢
Family volume
$28
Identifier
KXTARIFFAGREE-27-26OCT01
Sep 22, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 36m ago
Implied probability
Bid
47¢
Ask
65¢
Spread
18¢
Reported volume
$786
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Family volume
$28
Orderbook snapshot
47 / 65¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTARIFFAGREE-27-26OCT01
Event family
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$28
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 58¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
Read 41% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.